Stretch Run

[gwebb1994]

1. UNCA 12-2
2. RU 11-3
3. GW 10-4
LW 10-4
5. UPST 7-7

Remaining four games:

UNCA - at RU, GW, CSU, at LW
RU - UNCA, at LW, at HPU, CU
GW - WU, at UNCA, LW, at Upstate
LW - at Upstate, RU, at GW, UNCA

Our game with LW could be for the 3 seed, critical. We could run the table, we could play well and finish 1-3, it is that tight.

I think UNCA gets the top spot, I'd rather not see them again until Sunday in Charlotte if we can get that far.

[gwebb1994]

Tiebreaker policy per the Big South:

Basketball Tiebreaker Policy
Bookmark and Share 7/2/2015 3:21:00 PM
Seeding for the basketball championships will be determined by the regular season conference standings.

In case of a tie, the following formula will be used:

1. When two teams are tied in the standings, regular season head-to-head results are used as the tiebreaker.

2. If the tied teams played each other twice in the regular season and split their games, then each team’s record vs. the team occupying the highest position in the final regular season standings (or in case of a tie for first place, the next highest position in the regular season standings) and then continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.

(a) When arriving at another pair of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to their own tie-breaking procedures), rather than the performance against the individual tied teams. (b) When comparing records against a single team or a group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against a team or group is unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1; 1-0 is the same as 2-0; 2-0 is the same as 4-0; 2-1 is the same as 4-2; 1-0 is better than 1-1; 0-1 is the same as 0-2; 0-2 is the same as 0-4). If the winning percentage of the tied teams is equal against a team, or a group of tied teams, continue down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.

3. If three or more teams are tied in the standings, the following procedure will be used:

(a) The combined record of conference games between the tied teams involved will be compiled. Ties will be broken and seedings assigned based on the winning percentage of the combined conference records. The higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group is unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1; 1-0 is the same as 2-0; 2-0 is the same as 4-0; 2-1 is the same as 4-2; 1-0 is better than 1-1; 0-1 is the same as 0-2; 0-2 is the same as 0-4).
(b) If procedure (a) fails to break the tie, then each tied team’s record shall be compared to the team occupying the highest position in the final regular season standings, continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage by a higher winning percentage.
(c) If the tie is broken by (a) or (b) regarding one or more teams, but three or more
teams remain tied, then procedures (a) and (b) will be reapplied among those tied teams only.
(d) If two teams remain tied, procedures (1) and (2) will be followed.

4. If there is more than one tie in the standings, and when utilizing the tie-breaking procedures there are a pair of teams tied, a team’s record against the combined tied teams (prior to their own tie-breaking procedures) is used, rather than performance against the individual tied team.

5. If procedures (2) and/or (3) fail to establish an advantage, the team with the highest ranking on the most recent College Basketball RPI Report will be awarded the higher seed.

[gwebb1994]

So if we win out, we could finish as high as 2nd, if we split, we are locked into the 4th seed. If we were to lose out, we could free fall down the standings, let's not discuss that possibility.

For us to get 2nd:

Win out.
LW lose to us and UNCA.
RU split their remaining two (at HPU, CU)

To many possibilities for the 3rd seed, the tiebreaker straight up with us and LW would go all the way down the standings, but since there is a 3 way tie for 5th, it gets trickier.

Bottom line in these last two games...

[gwebb1994]

HPU stormed back from as many as 19 down in first half to beat RU 69-64.

Poor PC, led Upstate 57-50 with 3:07 left, then went scoreless the rest of the way and lost 59-57.

Three lead changes in the last ten seconds of regulation, then WU holds off CU 95-93.

If we win tomorrow night, then you have a three-way tie for second place. The tiebreakers are crazy after that, but we have a decent shot at the 3 seed, which is key to avoid the 4/5 game and Winthrop more than likely now in the quarterfinal round, then UNCA in a semifinal. For instance, RU sweeping WU could be key. GW having a sweep over Upstate could be key in a tiebreaker straight up with LW, since LW split with them. In all the scenarios we need UNCA to win at LW Saturday, a tough task since that will be the last game played at Willett Hall, their crowd will be amped.